North Korea: Crisis?

Maybe I will be accused of a bit of hyperbole here but maybe it's warranted. I think that it may be safe to say that, while we are not yet at a crisis with regards to North Korea (NK), we are very near a serious confrontation that could well be defining for this generation. Okay, hyperbole, I know but that is why I say it is possible not inevitable. What the six nations do now will shape whether this blows up in our face.

Let's put this in perspective. The US is technically at war with NK and NK wants bilateral talks with the US over resolving this and firm commitments not to invade (why we can't simply sign a peace treaty is beyond me). Kim Jong Il is also mildly nuts- let's be honest the man is clearly the product of inbreeding or proof that species do evolve (sometimes into evolutionary dead-ends too). But he is also rational. He wants security and to feel secure. A nuclear weapon might give him this. He also wants to be accepted as a legitimate leader and a respected state, which the bomb may also provide. China also has a stake in this as it too wants the prestige and status of a powerful state that it feels it is due (it may well get it if only for economic reasons). The failure to prevent NK's nuclear test is a slap in their face and humiliating in general. This may explain why they are backing tough sanctions. Japan can also not be excluded. NK launched a missile over their territory a few years back and this latest test is likely to spur on calls (which Prime minister Abe backs) for a larger military (currently barred under its occupation era constitution).

How does this add up to a potentially dangerous conflict? Getting the bomb in and of itself is nothing terribly disturbing. India and Pakistan both got it and we are all still alive. NK is different. Right or wrong India and Pakistan are engaging in nuclear rivalry much like the US and USSR did during the Cold War- nuclear deterrence defines their relations. NK, however, not only has a history of selling any and all of its weapons, it has a history of provocative behaviour to gain attention. It has engineered border skirmishes and small fire fights to heighten tensions (most recently this past weekend). This test is just another example. A larger test (since this one has sadly fizzled short- as I predicted during a lecture last week) is likely and will likely rattle nerves more. It is also a looming crisis in that the debate to build Japan's military will no longer be seen as a fringe argument. This will also unnerve China and their visions of glory.

The real danger, however, is not China's image and what they will do to fix it or Japan's militaristic tendencies- both will occur regardless. The problem is the likely effects of sanctions. An animal backed into a corner will strike out as it has no choice (cut off from oil, Japan attacked the US at Pearl harbor while they still could). A response is necessary but if we begin strangling the country (as is likely to happen with even China cutting aid) then what will NK do? It can either do another larger test, use a nuclear device militarily against South Korea or US troops, or it can start ratcheting tension through border skirmishes. That the government would collapse is naive idealism. It may collapse but it will strike out first. All of which spell brinkmanship.

We are very likely on a collision course with NK. We are about to play a very dangerous game of chicken and someone is going to need to suck it up and veer away. Neither Kim Jong Il nor Bush have a history of sucking in their pride and doing what they must- back down.