The Man on the Moon

Wow, it really took this long to get me to post something. I guess since the Dems took over my angst has been absent; I've been in a daze waiting for those 100 hours (it's hard to pass sarcasm off in a blog). Plus, the holidaze dented my desire for critique. But, the beast has awoken! China has blown up a satellite (their own, I admit) with a ballistic missile. WOW! Technically a difficult feat to achieve- and a dangerous one because now the bits and pieces are floating about waiting to hit something else (bravo China). My first reaction to this is that it is a massive provocation by China and an extremely dangerous act by a politically and militarily inept state- a rather gauche faux pas by a second rate, tacky nouveau riche state. This was, in short, a very unwise move that has the potential for not just a major diplomatic fallout but a military one as well. Taken in context (as this blog likes to do) the act, while still quite dangerous and unlikely to meet any conceivable Chinese political goals (other than domestic), is quite understandable.

Why knock out a satellite or have the ability to do so? Well, America's military relies so heavily on them that knocking them out in a potential battle sends America's military back several decades technologically. But there is also the technical achievement of being able to perform such an act. Some have argued that some states acquire nuclear weapons in part because of the prestige they confer. While this confers little prestige (blowing up satellites violates most states' desire for a peaceful use of space), the act could be seen as a way for China to assert its status as a powerful state. Moreover, it comes on the heels of the Bush Administration's own refusal to rule out a military use of space. The US recently affirmed its policy that it will do anything to maintain its free hand in space. This too could be seen as a mild provocation if it weren't from a state used to throwing its weight around with pointless comments like that.

The problem is that the act will likely set back any notion of China as a member of an elite, global power club (by perception at least). Powerful states throw their weight around, it's true, but there is some restraint- or was until Bush came around. In short, the powerful states tend to follow global norms even if they do so partly because they make those norms. China's act reeks of a poorer state desperate to be let into the club. Call it racism if you want, but many in the US and many other states are wary of China (and in particular a strong China) and want a reason to take a bolder foreign policy stance against it. This act having been so widely condemned (as far as I can tell without the Bush administration's urging) it is likely to lend support to the Sino-phobes.

This act also has the possibility of starting a military buildup that is partially already underway. The Bush administration needs little reason to play with its military toys or to build new ones. Having refused a global ban on the very kinds of testing that China has just done it is possible that the US may simply begin its own tests, push for a greater show of force near China, and in general start rebuilding its military. It is also possible that China wants a global ban and thought the US was being childish in its stance and decided to provoke it. While I've seen this discussed elsewhere, I seriously doubt that this missile test was part of a highly elaborate and dangerously provocative plan to get the US to sign a ban on militarising space. But you never know.

China has always had a bit of a complex about being at first a third tier then eventually a second tier state. It has delusions of grandeur. This can be seen in much of its hotheaded but ultimately empty bellicose rhetoric- particularly against Taiwan. But lately China has been acquiring the wealth and means to start playing the part it has so desperately wanted to play- a global power. It is not a global power yet but it might be one soon. It will be interesting to see what the fallout from this test will be. Will the powers that be simply condemn China then get back to the lucrative trade? Maybe. Or will this confirm the belief among many that a powerful China must be prevented and contained?

Sad to say it but I may be in the latter camp. China's domestic and foreign policies are far from laudable. A powerful China capable of militarily, economically, and diplomatically achieving its vision of the world- absent human rights or democracy- is not something I'd like to see.