Peace?

Am I writing because I have not written in over a month (a blog, mind you)? Or am I writing because I actually have something to say? I really can't be sure, to be honest. But, it seems that the long known and long offered plan for peace in Palestine may finally get a hearing and I feel like tossing out my 2 cents' worth.

Saudi Arabia may be on the verge of creating a stable peace in the Middle East that has long bedeviled US Presidents from Carter to the woefully inept Bush Jr. So what is this plan and why might it succeed?

Well, for starters the plan calls on Israel to withdraw to its pre '67 borders (as such, to the border recognised by the UN after the initial partition plan in 1948 was mooted by war) in exchange for recognition by the members of the Arab League (only Egypt and Jordan currently recognise, that is, extend diplomatic ties to, Israel). The idea and offer has been around since 2002 but for some reason it's starting to make headway now. Israel's response? They'll think about it. That is, honestly, quite promising but I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop or some random, hot-head to do something stupid to screw it up in the meantime.

Two things stand out in all of this. First, the Saudis have managed to get all of the other Arab states on board with this and kept Hamas quiet, which is not exactly easy. The second point of note is that it is Saudi Arabia doing all of this. Well, in fairness, this is not terribly new for Mid East watchers. But it does indicate that Saudi Arabia is taking a much bigger role in overt foreign policy in the region than it historically has. The Saudis have long been involved in regional peace issues (the irony is baffling, I admit) since at least the end of the Lebanese civil war, which they also helped broker. The Saudis have the wherewithal to make peace happen. They have the money and they can keep the US quiet (also not terribly easy to pull off). But previous interventions by the Saudis have been quiet and covert and very much in line with US regional policy. However much the US wishes for peace in the Mid East, the current administration has a very narrow view of what this means and it contradicts current Saudi efforts.

So will it work? Who knows but the biggest obstacle to this plan is not the still remaining complex issues between the Palestinians and Israel (not the least of which is the question of Palestinian 'right of return', which would allow any Palestinian to return to his/her former home in Israel should he wish). The biggest obstacle is US intransigence on the subject. The US doesn't like compromise and certainly doesn't like Hamas. The idea of finding a way out of the current impasse that would allow Hamas to save face (i.e. not recognise Israel in words- for now- but in practice) and for Israel to achieve peace for some reason pisses off Bush. Moreover, if the US comes out against this peace proposal then there will be no pressure on the Israelis to go through with it either. It would take a tough and independent Israeli government to do this on its own. Prime Minister Olmert's questionably stable govt is not that govt.

But, to end this 'return to blogging' blog, let me say that I think Israel needs to engage the Arab League and the Palestinians within this framework and leave the US out of it. For its part, the US needs to shut up and support this peace proposal (it's not like it's a Faustian pact).